Kirli çıkı

Türk dil kurumu Kirli Çıkı sözcüğünün mecazi olarak “Züğürt görünmesine karşın birikmiş çok parası bulunan kimse” anlamında kullanıldığını belirtmektedir.

Prof. J. David Singer ve Prof. Ragnar Nurkse tarafından ortaya konulan Yoksulluk Kısır Döngüsü Teorisine göre yoksul ülkeler yoksul oldukları için yoksuldur.

Bu şu anlama gelmektedir. Az gelişmiş toplumlarda bireylerin tasarruf düzeyi düşük olmaktadır. Ulusal tasarrufların düşük kalması yatırım düzeyinin düşük kalmasına neden olmaktadır. Yatırım düzeyi düşük kalınca Milli Gelir de düşük düzeyde kalmaktadır. Milli Gelirin azalması gelecek yıl tasarruflarının yeniden düşük olmasına neden olmaktadır. Bu çıkmaz yıllar yılı devam edip gitmektedir.

Peki ülkeler Ulusal tasarruf düzeyini artıramıyorsa ne yapmalıdır.

Paul Rosentein Rodan’a göre az gelişmiş toplumlarda planlı sanayileşmenin ortaya çıkabilmesi için yatırım düzeyinde tıpkı bir uçağın havalanma aşamasındaki gibi bir itişin gerçekleşmesi gerekmektedir. Büyük itiş kurdu olarak bilinen bu kurama göre; ulusal yatırımların bu denli hızlı artabilmesi için ülkenin sermaye birikiminin yüksek olması gerekmektedir. Bu kapsamda Rodan 1943 yılında yazdığı 1943’te ‘Doğu ve Güneydoğu Avrupa’nın Endüstrileşme Problemleri’ isimli makalesinde, yatırımlarını tasarruflarıyla karşılayamayan azgelişmiş ülkelerin dış ülkelerden yardım alması gerektiğini ileri sürmüştür.

Azgelişmiş ülkelere sermaye girişinin olmasıyla birlikte ulusal yatırım düzeyi artacak ve ekonomik büyüme gerçekleşecektir. Bu stratejinin temel amacı; ülkelerin kendi kendilerine yetecek düzeyde büyüme gerçekleştirmeleri ve bu büyüme oranlarının hızla devam etmesidir.

Fakat teorikte bu şekilde olması gereken olaylar pratikte daha farklı gerçekleşmektedir. Az gelişmiş toplumlara aktarılan yardımlar yatırımlara değil lüks tüketime veyahut gereksiz tüketim harcamalarına dönüşmektedir. Rodan’ın ileri sürdüğü gibi büyümenin aksine küçülme olmaktadır ve durum yıldan yıla daha da kötüye gitmektedir. Bunun sebebi alınan yardımların özellikle karşılıklı borçlar ise zamanında ödenememesinden dolayı borç çıkmazına girilmesidir. Yoksulluk çıkmazından çıkmaya çalışan ülke bu çıkmazın yanında bir de borç çıkmazına girmektedir.

Peki dış yardımlar olmadan neler yapılabilir?

Ulusal tasarruf düzeyi Gayrisafi Milli Hasıla’dan Ulusal Tüketimin çıkarılmasıyla elde edilir. Ulusal tüketimin bileşenleri özel tüketimler ve kamu tüketimleridir.

Bu noktada iki ihtimal vardır.

Birinci ihtimal; Gayri Safi Milli Hasıla düzeyini arttırmaktır. Yani ülkede üretilen nihai mal ve hizmetlerin miktarını arttırmaktır.

İkinci ihtimal; tüketim düzeyini azaltmaktır. Fakat az gelişmiş toplumların temel sorunu tasarruf yapabilecek gelir düzeyine sahip olamadıklarından dolayı marjinal tüketim eğilimlerinin yüksek olmasıdır.

Tüketim, özel tüketim harcamaları ve kamu tüketim harcamalarından oluşmaktadır. Bireylerin azaltmadıkları tüketim düzeyini devletin kamu harcamalarını azaltma yoluna giderek azaltması gerekmektedir. Fakat az gelişmiş toplumların bir başka sorunu sosyal alt yapı yetersizlikleridir. Devletin tüketim düzeyini azaltması bu nedenden dolayı zordur.

GSMH artmıyorsa, Özel Tüketimler azalmıyorsa, Kamu Tüketimleri azalamıyorsa, Ülke dış yardımları yatırımlara değil de tüketim harcamalarında kullanıyorsa, Ulusal tasarruf düzeyi düşük kalıyorsa, Ulusal yatırımlar artmıyorsa,

Ne yapılmalıdır?

Az gelişmiş toplumlar az gelişmiş oldukları için az gelişmiş olarak kendi kaderlerine boyun mu eğmelidir?

Tabiki de hayır!

İlk olarak yazının başında bahsedilen Kirli Çıkı kavramına geri dönelim. Keynes tarafından ortaya atılan tasarruf paradoksu kapsamında yer alan iddialar ortadan kaldırılmalıdır. Yani yastık altında bulunan ekonomik anlamda üretime yatırıma hiçbir katkısı olmayan altınların, dövizlerin finansal sisteme aktarılması gerekmektedir.

Bayanların eşlerinden gizli gizli bir tarafa attıkları çeyrekler, dövizler, paralar bir toplumsal hareketle finansal sisteme aktarılmalıdır.

Yine bayanlar arasında çok sık yapılan altın günü gibi uygulamalar hisse senedi günü, yatırım fonu günü, banka parası günü gibi günlere dönüştürülmelidir.

İşlem amaçlı olarak cepte tutulan paralar finansal sisteme aktarılmalı, bankalar işlem ücretlerini düşürmeli ve toplumun tüm bireyleri banka kartı ve kredi kartı gibi enstrümantalleri tüm alışverişlerinde kullanmalıdır.

Ulusal tasarruf düzeyinin arttırılmasının bir başka yolu israfın ortadan kaldırılmasıdır. Diğer bir önemli faktör ise lüks tüketimin ve hızlı tüketimin azaltılmasıdır. Alınan bir üründen maksimum fayda elde edilmelidir. Üretimde azalan verimler ortadan kaldırılmalıdır.

Faiz oranlarının düşürülmesi, döviz kurunun istikrarı, Merkez Bankası’nın istikrar politikaları, siyasi istikrar, ihracatın arttırılması, borçların optimizasyonu, sosyal sermayenin arttırılması gibi faktörler de az gelişmiş toplumların temel sorunlarından olarak görülmektedir.

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