Ne olacak bu doların hali?

Çocukluğumuzun şarkıcıları arasında yer alan Küçük Emrah’ın seslendirdiği bir şarkı vardı:

“Benim narin narin yârim

Suya düştü hayalin

Ne olacak şimdi halim

Benim narin narin yârim”

Dolardaki fiyat değişiklikleri de bana bu şarkının sözlerini hatırlattı.

Bir sabah uyanıyorsunuz bir bakmışsınız ki dolar tarihi artışını yaşamış. Hükümetten, hükümete yakın kimselerden gelen ilk açıklamaları duyunca bu artış dizginlenerek biraz daha stabil olmaya başlıyor. Birkaç gün sonra yine tarihi artış yaşanıyor. Bu paradoks günlerce devam ediyor, devam edeceğe de benziyor. Ekonomistler ise son 17 yılın en büyük dalgalanmalarını yaşadığı doların yönünün ne tarafta olacağını kestirmede zorlanıyor.

2013 yılının Şubat ayında 1,75 TL karşılığında işlem gören dolar bugün 3,55 TL karşılığında alınıp-satılıyor. Yani 4 yıllık süreç içerisinde dolar kurundaki artış %100 oranında.

Peki, doların bu kadar hızlı artmasına neden olan faktörler neler?

Öncelikle 15 Temmuz darbe girişiminin doların bu kadar artmasında etkili olduğu söylenebilir. Ayrıca gerek komşularımız gerekse de Batılı ülkeler ile yaşadığımız birtakım siyasi, askeri, ekonomik vb. sorunlardan dolayı dünyada Türkiye hakkında dünyada bir olumsuz hava estirilmekte. OHAL uygulamalarının süresinin uzatılması, uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarının Türkiye’nin notu olumsuz yönde açıklamaları, Avrupa Birliği ile yaşanan siyasi sorunlar, referandum süreci sonrasında yaşanan tartışmalar dolar kurunun artmasını tetikliyor.

Uluslararası piyasalar hakkında gelecek öngörülerinde bulunan kuruluşlar, 2017 yılı sonu itibarıyla dolar kurunun 3,75 TL olarak hedeflendiğini açıklıyorlar. Kısa vadede dolar kurunun azalma eğilimi içerisinde olmayacağı kanaatini taşıyanlar arasında ben de yer alıyorum. Bunun nedeni ise 2017 yılı içinde özel sektörün dış borç ödemeleridir. Şöyle ki, 2016 yılında yaklaşık 9 milyar dolar dış borç ödeyen özel sektör kesimi 2017 yılı içinde yaklaşık 50 milyar ödeme yapacak. Bu tutarın yaklaşık 35 milyar doları bankacılık ve finans sektörüne ait iken 15 milyar doları da reel sektörün.

Peki, doların bu kadar hızlı artmasını engellemek için yapılması gerekenler neler?

Öncelikle Türkiye sınırları için siyasi ve sosyal anlamda güven ve huzuru tesise etmek gerekir. Referandum süreci bitti ve halk kararını bu noktada vermiş görünüyor. Artık hükümetin ve hükümeti sevk ve idare edenlerin istediği “evet” sonucu da alındığına göre şimdi aksiyon zamanı. Dünyada dolar fiyatını etkileme gücümüz ve dirayetimiz olmadığına göre, iç piyasada “o bizi yakmadan, biz onun ateşini almamız” gerekir. Gerek iç politika belirleyicileri gerekse de dış politika belirleyicileri bu noktada istikrarlı bir politika uygulamak zorundadır. Tüketicilerin gelecek kaygılarının minimize edilerek beklentilerin iyileştirilmesi, yatırımcılara güvenilir limanlar tahsis edilerek mali motivasyon argümanlarının sağlanması ilk ve öncelikli konu olması gerekir. Başta Avrupa Birliği olmak üzere ABD ve sınır komşusu olduğumuz ülkelerle ilişkilerin yumuşatılarak uzun vadede güçleştirilmesi gerekir. “Bize, bizden başka dost yok” nutuklarını elbette önemsemeli ama kendimize yeterli olmadığımız bir dünya arenasında boş ve ucuz kahramanlıklara girişmemiz gerekir. Bu sayede gelecekteki olası risklere bağlı olarak bugünden oluşturulan olumsuz kara bulutlar dağıtılacaktır. Olumlu gelecek beklentilerine sahip olan piyasa aktörleri de bu şekilde risk odaklı döviz talebini azaltacak ve döviz çıkışları da minimize edilecektir.

Kuşkusuz koca ülkeyi yönetenler “ne olacak bu doların hali” hakkında düşündüklerimizi elbette düşünmektedir.

Hani şair diyor ya: “Benimse söylemekten başka çarem kalmadı. Bu çömelmenin ilâcı, bulunur yine de kendi cevherinizde”

Daha Fazla Göster

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