Türkiye Ekonomisi Nereye Gidiyor?

Türkiye de tüm sektörlere ait 2017 2.dönem mali veriler açıklandı. Ben de bu yazım da bu mali verilerin ne olduğunu, Türkiye ekonomisi’nin nereye gittiğini ve yıl sonu ekonomik tahminleri anlatacağım.

Türkiye’nin en hızlı büyüyen sektörlerin başında ekonomiraporu.com da yazmış olduğum gibi ‘’BANKACILIK’ ’gelmektedir. 2.Dönem mali verileri incelediğimiz de bankalar bizi yine şaşırtmadı, rekor üstüne rekor kırdılar. Fakat özel sektör ve kamu sektörü için bu durum hiç iç açıcı değil!

Yukarıda ki tablo en güncel haliyle Türkiye’nin dış borç stok ’unu göstermektedir. (Dolar bazında)

Tabloya baktığımız da 2017 yılı itibariyle 412,4 milyar dolar borcun %30 ‘u kamu sektörünü ait olup yüzde 70’lik kısmı ise özel sektörün borcudur.( Türkiye’nin GSYİH Yaklaşık 800 milyar dolar kısacası; kazandığımızın yarısı borca gidiyor).

Yukarı da ki tablo da kamu sektörü ’nün borcu dış tahvil borçlanma olup, özel sektörün borcu hammadde(ara mal) alımından oluşmaktadır.

Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası(TCMB) 2.dönem rezervlerini incelediğimiz de brüt döviz rezervi 90,1 milyar dolar olup net döviz rezervi 27,9 milyar dolar.2017 yılbaşında net döviz rezervi 36,5 milyar dolardı. Detaylı incele yaptığımızda 2017 yılı Merkez bankası rezervleri son 5 yılın dibinde…

Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Hazine Müsteşarlığı’nı incelediğimizde 2017 yılı için borçlanma tavanı 47,5 milyar TL idi ve daha fazla borçlanma için bakanlar kurulundan yetki alacak.

Kredi Garanti Fonu (KGF) ile Büyük ve Küçük ölçekli işletmelere 200 milyar TL tutarında kredi kullandırıldı.

Türkiye’nin ihracatı, mayısta geçen yılın aynı ayına göre yüzde 12.5 artarak 13 milyar 616 milyon dolar, ithalatı yüzde 21.7 artarak 20 milyar 923 milyon dolarak olarak gerçekleşti.

Bütçe yılın ilk altı ayında 25,2 milyar TL açık vermiş olup, yılın ilk altı ayında protesto edilen senet tutarı 6 milyar TL’dir.

Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumu(SGK),Bütçesi’nin yüzde 64’ünü ilk altı ayda bitirmiştir. İlk 6 ay içinde tahsil edilen Katma Değer Vergi oranı (KDV) yüzde 32’dir.

Kurulan şirket sayısı 2017 Haziranın da bir önceki aya göre yüzde 3,35 azalarak 5 bin 952 oldu. Aynı dönemde kapanan şirket sayısı yüzde 28.28 artışla bin 16 oldu.

2017 yılı için Ar-ge çalışmalarına 3,3 milyar TL harcanmış olup, en büyük pay sahibi Üniversitelerdir.

Toprak Mahsulleri Ofisi (TMO)’ne 2017 Haziran itibari 0(sıfır) gümrük vergisi ile 750 bin ton buğday,700 bin ton arpa,700 bin ton mısır,100 bin ton pirinç alma yetkisi verildi.

Yukarı da açıkladığımız mali verileri özetlemek gerekirse;

Şüphesiz ki Türkiye ekonomisi ’ne yön veren kuruluşların başında bankalar gelmektedir. Ekonomimiz de bu kadar sıkıntılar varken Bankaları’n bu kadar denli rekor kırmaları üzücü bir durum, bu durum bizim ekonomimizin bankalara dayalı büyüdüğünü, kredilere dayalı büyüdüğünü kısacası borçla büyüdüğümüzü göstermektedir.

Yukarı da ki tablo da gördüğünüz üzere dış borç stoku yıldan yılla artmaktadır. KGF ‘den aldığımız krediler ile piyasadan döviz alıp yurt dışı borçlarımızı ödedik. Bunların TL ödemesi ne olacak peki? Bu durum ister istemez yılsonunda birçok büyük ve küçük ölçekli firmalara etkisi olacaktır. Haziran ayında ki kapanan şirketlerine bakarsak durum yılsonunda hiç iç açıcı değil.

Merkez Bankası’nın brüt döviz rezervi azaldığı için piyasa ’ya müdahale edilmiyor. Şu an için fiyat istikrarını sağlıyor. Yıl Sonu’na kadar bu durum devam edeceğe benziyor.

Üretim ülkesi olmadığımız için ithalatımız artmıştır. Bu durum beraberinde dış ticaret açığını ve bütçe açığını meydana getirmektedir. Bundan dolayı dolar gün geçtikçe artmakta Merkez Bankası’nın dolar için yıl sonu tahmini 3,90-3,95 aralığıdır. Bu durum sanayicilerimizi ve ekonomimizi sıkıntıya sokacaktır.(Maalesef ülkemiz de dolarizasyon var).

Tarım, ülke ekonomisine katkısı gün geçtikçe azalmakta nüfusun yüzde 3’lük kısmı tarım ile uğraşmakta. Bugün bir özel Yat veya Jet’iniz varsa TÜPRAŞ’tan gidip ÖTV’siz ve TRT katkı payı olmadan motorin alabiliyorsunuz fakat bu durum Çiftçilerimiz için geçerli değil, ÖTV’Sİ motorin desteği çiftçimize de verilmeli ve Çiftçilerimizin devlet desteği ile bir araya gelip Kooperatif veya Birlik kurarak komisyoncu ve aracıları ortadan kaldırmaları lazım bu durum ’un ekonomimize çok katkısı olacaktır.

Türkiye’de 294 çeşit vergi var. Vergi affı çıkararak tahsilat yapamazsınız. Türkiye’de 5 yıl içinde 4 defa vergi affı çıktı. İşletmelere vergi ödeme bilincinin yerleştirilmesi lazım.

‘’Bir Ülke’nin gücünü; ne tankı, ne tüfeği, ne silahı belirler. ÜRETİM KAPASİTESİ belirler’’ .

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  93. In addition to reducing costs, blockchain can also automate many accounting jobs to eliminate human errors. This makes the tech incredibly attractive to startups like Auditchain that are using blockchain to enable real-time auditing and decentralized accounting. A dApp (short for “decentralized app”) is a software application that runs on smart contracts. For more context, consider the apps on your smartphone. Chances are they’re operated by a centralized corporation or business. DApps, however, aim to create apps that aren’t controlled by single entities. This includes everything from internet browsers to smartphone apps to entire exchanges. These companies are using smart contracts to transform the real estate industry by providing a more safe, more effective, and more transparent way to handle property transactions. By utilizing blockchain technology and smart contracts, these companies are breaking down barriers to entry and providing a more accessible way for individuals to invest in real estate.
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