Uluslararası Finans Piyasalarının Ortak Sorunu..

Uluslararası finansal piyasaların ortak sorunu döviz talebinin döviz arzından daha fazla olmasıdır. Bundan dolayı ülke paraları dolar karşısında ya açıktan ya da gizli olarak devalüe edilmektedir. Ülkeler dış ticaret açıklarını kapatmak için genellikle ulusal paranın aleyhine yabancı paranın lehine olan politikalar uygulamaktadır. Fakat bu durum, belirli bir süre sonra içinden çıkılamaz ekonomik sorunları doğurmaktadır. Cari açık gibi, enflasyon gibi, işsizlik gibi sorunların temelinde yatan problemler yabancı para ile ulusal para birimi arasındaki dengesizliktir. Ülkelerin dolar arzını arttırmak gibi bir gücü bulunmamaktadır. Yani her ülke kendi Merkez Bankası aracılığıyla döviz arzını artıramamaktadır. Dövizin dışarıdan ülke içerisine gelmesine neden olacak politikalar yoluyla iç piyasada döviz arzını artırmaya çalışan ülkeler farkında olmadan gelecek dönemlerde ciddi sorunlar yaşamaktadır. Örneğin uluslararası sermaye hareketliliğinin esnek olduğu küresel ekonomik sistemlerde sermayenin dış piyasadan iç piyasaya akmasını sağlamak için iç piyasa faiz oranı arttırılmaktadır. Faiz artınca sermayenin iç piyasaya geleceği beklenmektedir. Fakat faizin artması iç piyasada yatırımların azalmasına neden olmaktadır. Yatırımların azalması ile birlikte Milli Gelir azalmaktadır. Öte taraftan enflasyon hedefini tutturabilmek için Merkez Bankası faiz oranını düşürmek istememektedir. Enflasyon düştükçe işsizlik oranının da artacağı ifade edilmektedir. Peki en iyi politika karması nasıl seçilmelidir * Sermaye hareketliliğinin serbest

* Sabit Döviz Kuru

* Bağımsız para politikası Aynı anda bu üç politikanın uygulanması üçlü açmaz hipotezine göre imkansızdır.

* Sermaye hareketliliği serbest

* Sabit döviz kuru Bu durumda bağımsız para politikası yerine Para Kurulu gibi bir politika uygulanmalıdır.

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